Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case

Daniel Rojas-Díaz (), María Eugenia Puerta-Yepes, Daniel Medina-Gaspar, Jesús Alonso Botero, Anwar Rodríguez and Norberto Rojas
Additional contact information
Daniel Rojas-Díaz: Area of Fundamental Sciences, School of Applied Sciences and Engineering, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
María Eugenia Puerta-Yepes: Area of Fundamental Sciences, School of Applied Sciences and Engineering, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
Daniel Medina-Gaspar: School of Finance, Economics, and Government, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
Jesús Alonso Botero: School of Finance, Economics, and Government, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin 050022, Colombia
Anwar Rodríguez: Center for Economic Studies, National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF), Bogota 110231, Colombia
Norberto Rojas: Center for Economic Studies, National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF), Bogota 110231, Colombia
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Medina Gaspar

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 18, 1-36

Abstract: The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection.

Keywords: cancer care; discrete time; identifiability analysis; health system; mathematical modeling; parameter estimation; public health; public policies; sensitivity analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/18/6740/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/18/6740/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:18:p:6740-:d:1237505

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().