The Time-Lag Effect of Climate Factors on the Forest Enhanced Vegetation Index for Subtropical Humid Areas in China

Jushuang Qin, Menglu Ma, Jiabin Shi, Shurui Ma, Baoguo Wu and Xiaohui Su ()
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Jushuang Qin: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Menglu Ma: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Jiabin Shi: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Shurui Ma: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Baoguo Wu: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Xiaohui Su: School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Forests represent the greatest carbon reservoir in terrestrial ecosystems. Climate change drives the changes in forest vegetation growth, which in turn influences carbon sequestration capability. Exploring the dynamic response of forest vegetation to climate change is thus one of the most important scientific questions to be addressed in the precise monitoring of forest resources. This paper explores the relationship between climate factors and vegetation growth in typical forest ecosystems in China from 2007 to 2019 based on long-term meteorological monitoring data from six forest field stations in different subtropical ecological zones in China. The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) was used to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of the time-lag effects of climate factors, and the impact of climate change on vegetation was predicted. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) was used to measure vegetation growth. Monthly meteorological observations and solar radiation data, including precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, and photosynthetic effective radiation, were provided by the resource sharing service platform of the national ecological research data center. It was revealed that the time-lag effect of climate factors on the EVI vanished after a half year, and the lag accumulation tended to be steady over time. The TVP-VAR model was found to be more suitable than the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The predicted EVI values using the TVP-VAR model were close to the true values with the root mean squares error (RMSE) < 0.05. On average, each site improved its prediction accuracy by 14.81%. Therefore, the TVP-VAR model can be used to analyze the relationship of climate factors and forest EVI as well as the time-lag effect of climate factors on vegetation growth in subtropical China. The results can be used to improve the predictability of the EVI for forests and to encourage the development of intensive forest management.

Keywords: TVP-VAR model; time-varying impulse response; time-lag effect; enhanced vegetation index; climate factors; forest ecological station (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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