Musculoskeletal Disorder Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Predicts from 1990 to 2044

Zeru Yu, Jingya Zhang, Yongbo Lu, Ning Zhang, Bincai Wei, Rongxin He () and Ying Mao ()
Additional contact information
Zeru Yu: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Jingya Zhang: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Yongbo Lu: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Ning Zhang: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Bincai Wei: School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Rongxin He: Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China
Ying Mao: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the three major disabling diseases in the world. However, the current disease burden in China is not well-known. This study aimed to explore the burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2019, predicting the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. All data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend, and descriptive analyses of the time trends and age distributions of risk factors were performed. The Bayesian APC model was used to foresee the incidence trend from 2020 to 2044. The results indicated that the burden of musculoskeletal disorders is higher in women and older adults. Its attributable risk factors were found to be tobacco, a high body mass index, kidney dysfunction and occupational risks. In 2044, musculoskeletal disorders in China showed a downward trend for 35–59-year-olds and a slight upward trend for 30–34- and 65–84-year-olds. The 70–74 year age group saw the largest increase in incidence at 4.66%. Overall, the incidence increased with age. Therefore, prevention and control policies should focus on women and the elderly, and health interventions should be carried out based on risk factors.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders; joinpoint regression; risk factors; age–period–cohort model; prediction; burden of diseases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/840/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/840/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:1:p:840-:d:1022775

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().