Combining Bayesian Calibration and Copula Models for Age Estimation

Andrea Faragalli, Edlira Skrami, Andrea Bucci, Rosaria Gesuita (), Roberto Cameriere, Flavia Carle and Luigi Ferrante
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Andrea Faragalli: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Edlira Skrami: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Andrea Bucci: Department of Economics, Università degli Studi G. d’Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara, 65127 Pescara, Italy
Rosaria Gesuita: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Roberto Cameriere: AgEstimation Project, University of Macerata, 62100 Macerata, Italy
Flavia Carle: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Luigi Ferrante: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 2, 1-13

Abstract: Accurately estimating and predicting chronological age from some anthropometric characteristics of an individual without an identity document can be crucial in the context of a growing number of forced migrants. In the related literature, the prediction of chronological age mostly relies upon the use of a single predictor, which is usually represented by a dental/skeletal maturity index, or multiple independent ordinal predictor (stage of maturation). This paper is the first attempt to combine a robust method to predict chronological age, such as Bayesian calibration, and the use of multiple continuous indices as predictors. The combination of these two aspects becomes possible due to the implementation of a complex statistical tool as the copula. Comparing the forecasts from our copula-based method with predictions from an independent model and two single predictor models, we showed that the accuracy increased.

Keywords: age estimation; Bayesian calibration; copula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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