Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan

Xiao-Han Shen, Yung-Yueh Chang, Rong-Qi Pham, Wei-An Chen, Fang-Yu Li, Wan-Chin Huang and Yu-Wen Lin ()
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Xiao-Han Shen: Master Program of Big Data in Biomedicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
Yung-Yueh Chang: Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Rd., Taipei City 10055, Taiwan
Rong-Qi Pham: Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
Wei-An Chen: Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
Fang-Yu Li: Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
Wan-Chin Huang: Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
Yu-Wen Lin: Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 2, 1-11

Abstract: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) is Taiwan’s second most common lung carcinoma histotype. This study aimed to investigate changes in the long-term trend of the SQC incidence rate in Taiwan. SQC cases between 1985 and 2019 were adopted from Taiwan‘s Cancer Registry System; the age-adjusted incidence rate was calculated using the World Standard Population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, period, and birth cohort effect of SQC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of lung carcinoma in Taiwan increased, while the incidence of SQC exhibited a slight decrease during this study period. The age rate ratio (ARR) of the incidence rate in men declined gradually, and the period effect changed more slowly for women than men. The cohort effect formed a bimodal curve. The annual percentage change results for women indicated that the ARR decreased from 1.652 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.422, 1.9192) at 30 to 34 years to 0.559 (95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6265) at 75 to 79 years; the period effect decreased from 1.2204 (95% CI: 1.1148, 1.336) in 1995 to 1999 to 0.608 (95% CI: 0.5515, 0.6704) in 2015 to 2019, with a greater decline in the later period. The cohort effect was unimodal, with the SQC risk value peaking in the 1915 birth cohort and exhibiting a steady decline thereafter. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in the smoking rate may be the reason for the decline in the incidence of SQC, and we observed a similar trend between SQC and the smoking rate in men.

Keywords: squamous cell lung carcinoma; incidence; age-period-cohort analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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