Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

Lintao Liu, Shouchao Yu, Hengjia Zhang (), Yong Wang and Chao Liang
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Lintao Liu: College of Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252059, China
Shouchao Yu: College of Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252059, China
Hengjia Zhang: College of Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252059, China
Yong Wang: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Chao Liang: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: This study analyzed change and spatial patterns of land use in Shanxi from 2000 to 2020. The drivers of land use and cover change (LUCC) in cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas were explored from four dimensions, including population, natural environment, location traffic, and economic development. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the scenarios of natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP), economic development (ED), food security (FS), ecological protection–economic development (EP-ED), and ecological protection–food security (EP-FS) in 2030. The results indicated that: (1) The conversion to built-up areas primarily dominated the LUCC processes, and their expansion was mainly to the detriment of the cultivated lands and grasslands during 2000–2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population, economy, and land productivity were the main factors of LUCC; the interaction of drivers for the increase of cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas showed enhancement. (3) Under the NG, ED, and EP-ED scenarios, the rural construction areas would have increased significantly, while under the FS and EP-FS scenarios, the cultivated lands would only just have increased. These future land use scenarios can inform decision-makers to make sound decisions that balance socio-economic, ecological, and food security benefits.

Keywords: land use change; land driving factors; geographical detector; CA-Markov; scenario simulation; Shanxi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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