The Impact of Urbanization on Urban Heat Island: Predictive Approach Using Google Earth Engine and CA-Markov Modelling (2005–2050) of Tianjin City, China

Nadeem Ullah, Muhammad Amir Siddique, Mengyue Ding, Sara Grigoryan, Irshad Ahmad Khan, Zhihao Kang, Shangen Tsou, Tianlin Zhang, Yike Hu () and Yazhuo Zhang ()
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Nadeem Ullah: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Muhammad Amir Siddique: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Mengyue Ding: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Sara Grigoryan: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Irshad Ahmad Khan: Centre for Research in Agricultural Genomics (CRAG) CSIC-IRTA-UAB-UB, Campus UAB, Bellaterra, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
Zhihao Kang: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Shangen Tsou: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Tianlin Zhang: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Yike Hu: School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China
Yazhuo Zhang: School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300272, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: Urbanization has adverse environmental effects, such as rising surface temperatures. This study analyzes the relationship between the urban heat island (UHI) intensity and Tianjin city’s land cover characteristics. The land use cover change (LUCC) effects on the green areas and the land surface temperature (LST) were also studied. The land cover characteristics were divided into five categories: a built-up area, an agricultural area, a bare area, a forest, and water. The LST was calculated using the thermal bands of spatial images taken from 2005 to 2020. The increase in the built-up area was mainly caused by the agricultural area decreasing by 11.90%. The average land surface temperature of the study area increased from 23.50 to 36.51 °C, and the region moved to a high temperature that the built-up area’s temperature increased by 1.5%. Still, the increase in vegetation cover was negative. From 2020 to 2050, the land surface temperature is expected to increase by 9.5 °C. The high-temperature areas moved into an aerial distribution, and the direction of urbanization determined their path. Urban heat island mitigation is best achieved through forests and water, and managers of urban areas should avoid developing bare land since they may suffer from degradation. The increase in the land surface temperature caused by the land cover change proves that the site is becoming more urbanized. The findings of this study provide valuable information on the various aspects of urbanization in Tianjin and other regions. In addition, future research should look into the public health issues associated with rapid urbanization.

Keywords: land surface temperature; urban heat island; land use cover change; urban planning and development; ecological evaluation; urban system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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