Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050

Ruhao Zhang, Yifei He, Bincai Wei, Yongbo Lu, Jingya Zhang, Ning Zhang, Rongxin He, Hao Xue () and Bin Zhu ()
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Ruhao Zhang: School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Yifei He: School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Bincai Wei: School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Yongbo Lu: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Jingya Zhang: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Ning Zhang: School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Rongxin He: Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China
Hao Xue: Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
Bin Zhu: School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 4, 1-12

Abstract: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50–54 years), 16.43 (55–59 years), 17.26 (60–64 years), 18.02 (65–69 years), 18.55 (70–74 years), 18.39 (75–79 years), 19.95 (80–84 years), 23.07 (85–89 years), 13.70 (90–94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China’s NPC prevention and control policy design.

Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma; joinpoint regression; GBD study; risk factors; age-period-cohort model; prediction; burden of diseases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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