A Sustainable Road Transport Decarbonisation: The Scenario Analysis of New Energy Vehicle in China

Anqi Chen (), Shibing You, Huan Liu, Jiaxuan Zhu and Xu Peng
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Anqi Chen: Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Shibing You: Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Huan Liu: Merchants Union Consumer Finance Company Limited, Wuhan 430070, China
Jiaxuan Zhu: Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Xu Peng: Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: Due to the prosperous development of the economy, the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) have intensified and attracted attention worldwide. China has set the “dual-carbon” aim to pursue sustainable development in the transport sector. Thus, this study created a generalised Bass model to forecast new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership by introducing a new factor, charging piles, to reflect the infrastructure effects. Using the improved model with the hypothesis of annual mileage, an empirical analysis was conducted with the subject of NEVs in China by using the NEV-related panel data from 2010 to 2020, and the forecast result is outstanding with a goodness-of-fit of 99.7%. With the forecasts, carbon emission reduction was calculated with a bottom-up method. To further discuss the pathway to achieve carbon neutrality in the transport sector of China, a scenario analysis was conducted with ideal, enhanced, and radical constraints. The results show that if all factors remain “as is” until 2050, China will be far from carbon neutrality. Thus, this paper proposes relevant policy implications to assist the government to obtain effective methods to assess carbon reduction benefits and find viable pathways to a sustainable road transport system.

Keywords: new energy vehicles; generalised Bass model; carbon reduction; carbon neutrality; scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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