Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Water Resources Trend Change in Hanjiang River Basin

Ming Kong, Jieni Zhao, Chuanfu Zang (), Yiting Li and Jinglin Deng
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Ming Kong: School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
Jieni Zhao: School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
Chuanfu Zang: School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
Yiting Li: School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
Jinglin Deng: School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 4, 1-19

Abstract: Studying the historical and future trends of water resources in a basin and explaining the causes of water resource changes is very important, which is key to the management of water resources in a basin. The Hanjiang River Basin is an important water supply source for southwestern Fujian and eastern Guangdong, but it has an uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and an outstanding conflict between supply and demand. In this study, the SWAT model was used to simulate the conditions of the Hanjiang River Basin in the last 50 years, using long time series climate data to study the characteristics and driving mechanism of water resources trend change. The results show that the water resources in the basin have not increased significantly in the last 50 years, but evapotranspiration has increased significantly. The forecast results for water resources in the future are reduced. The water resource changes in the basin have been unevenly distributed in the last 50 years. Climate change has been the main factor in total water resource change in the basin, while the difference in water resource change trends within the basin is caused by land use. The key reason for the decrease in water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin is the significant increase in evapotranspiration due to the significant increase in temperature. If this situation continues, the available water resources in the basin will continue to decline. In fact, many basins around the world are currently likely to have such problems, such as the 2022 summer drought in the Danube River Basin in Europe and the Yangtze River Basin in China, so this article is informative and representative of future water resources management in the basin.

Keywords: water resources; SWAT model; spatial-temporal evolution; Mann-Kendall test; Hanjiang River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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