Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances

Thanapong Champahom (), Chamroeun Se, Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao, Tassana Boonyoo, Amphaphorn Leelamanothum and Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
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Thanapong Champahom: Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Chamroeun Se: School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao: School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Tassana Boonyoo: Traffic and Transport Development and Research Center (TDRC), King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
Amphaphorn Leelamanothum: Department of Management, Faculty of Business Administration, Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand
Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha: School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000, Thailand

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-28

Abstract: Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.

Keywords: heterogeneity in means and variances; rider characteristics; local roads in developing countries; temporal stability; motorcyclist fatality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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