Economic Analysis of Border Control Policies during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Modelling Study to Inform Cross-Border Travel Policy between Singapore and Thailand

Celestine Grace Xueting Cai, Nigel Wei-Han Lim, Vinh Anh Huynh, Aparna Ananthakrishnan, Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak, Borame Sue Lee Dickens, Dian Faradiba, Sarin Kc, Alec Morton, Minah Park, Chayapat Rachatan, Manit Sittimart, Hwee-Lin Wee, Jing Lou () and Yot Teerawattananon
Additional contact information
Celestine Grace Xueting Cai: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Nigel Wei-Han Lim: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Vinh Anh Huynh: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Aparna Ananthakrishnan: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Borame Sue Lee Dickens: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Dian Faradiba: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Sarin Kc: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Alec Morton: Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, 16 Richmond Street, Glasgow G1 1XQ, UK
Minah Park: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Chayapat Rachatan: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Manit Sittimart: Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, 6th Floor, 6th Building, Tiwanon Road, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
Hwee-Lin Wee: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Jing Lou: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore
Yot Teerawattananon: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore (NUS), 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: With countries progressing towards high COVID-19 vaccination rates, strategies for border reopening are required. This study focuses on Thailand and Singapore, two countries that share significant tourism visitation, to illustrate a framework for optimizing COVID-19 testing and quarantine policies for bilateral travel with a focus on economic recovery. The timeframe is the month of October 2021, when Thailand and Singapore were preparing to reopen borders for bilateral travel. This study was conducted to provide evidence for the border reopening policy decisions. Incremental net benefit (INB) compared to the pre-opening period was quantified through a willingness-to-travel model, a micro-simulation COVID-19 transmission model and an economic model accounting for medical and non-medical costs/benefits. Multiple testing and quarantine policies were examined, and Pareto optimal (PO) policies and the most influential components were identified. The highest possible INB for Thailand is US $125.94 million, under a PO policy with no quarantine but with antigen rapid tests (ARTs) pre-departure and upon arrival to enter both countries. The highest possible INB for Singapore is US $29.78 million, under another PO policy with no quarantine on both sides, no testing to enter Thailand, and ARTs pre-departure and upon arrival to enter Singapore. Tourism receipts and costs/profits of testing and quarantine have greater economic impacts than that from COVID-19 transmission. Provided healthcare systems have sufficient capacity, great economic benefits can be gained for both countries by relaxing border control measures.

Keywords: economic evaluation; transmission; willingness to travel; COVID-19; border-opening policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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