Copula-Based Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Risk in China

Ming Li (), Guiwen Wang, Shengwei Zong () and Xurong Chai
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Ming Li: College of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030031, China
Guiwen Wang: Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security of Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Shengwei Zong: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Xurong Chai: College of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030031, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Droughts are widespread in China and have brought considerable losses to the economy and society. Droughts are intricate, stochastic processes with multi-attributes (e.g., duration, severity, intensity, and return period). However, most drought assessments tend to focus on univariate drought characteristics, which are inadequate to describe the intrinsic characteristics of droughts due to the existence of correlations between drought attributes. In this study, we employed the standardized precipitation index to identify drought events using China’s monthly gridded precipitation dataset from 1961 to 2020. Univariate and copula-based bivariate methods were then used to examine drought duration and severity on 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Finally, we used the hierarchical cluster method to identify drought-prone regions in mainland China at various return periods. Results revealed that time scale played an essential role in the spatial heterogeneity of drought behaviors, such as average characteristics, joint probability, and risk regionalization. The main findings were as follows: (1) 3- and 6-month time scales yielded comparable regional drought features, but not 12-month time scales; (2) higher drought severity was associated with longer drought duration; (3) drought risk was higher in the northern Xinjiang, western Qinghai, southern Tibet, southwest China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and lower in the southeastern coastal areas of China, the Changbai Mountains, and the Greater Khingan Mountains; (4) mainland China was divided into six subregions according to joint probabilities of drought duration and severity. Our study is expected to contribute to better drought risk assessment in mainland China.

Keywords: meteorological drought; run theory; copula function; drought risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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