Design Rainfall Change of Rainwater Source Control Facility to Meet Future Scenarios in Beijing

Xuerao Wang, Zhiyong Zhao, Zhiming Zhang (), Meifang Ren and Thomas Sagris
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Xuerao Wang: Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China
Zhiyong Zhao: Arup International Consultants (Shanghai) Company Limited, Shanghai 200031, China
Zhiming Zhang: Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China
Meifang Ren: China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100044, China
Thomas Sagris: Arup International Consultants (Shanghai) Company Limited, Shanghai 200031, China

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-15

Abstract: Rainwater source control facilities are essential to sponge city construction in China. Their size is determined based on historical rainfall data. However, with global warming and rapid urban development, rainfall characteristics have also changed, potentially leading to the failure of rainwater source- control facilities to manage surface water in the future. In this study, the design rainfall’s change and spatial distribution are analyzed using historical (1961–2014) observation rainfall data and future (2020–2100) projection data of three CMIP6 climate models. The results show that EC-Earth3 and GFDL-ESM4 project that future design rainfall will increase. EC-Earth3 projects a significant increase, while MPI-ESM1-2 projects that the design rainfall will decrease significantly. From the perspective of space, the design rainfall isoline in Beijing has always increased from northwest to southeast. In the historical period, the difference in design rainfall in different regions has reached 19 mm, and this regional heterogeneity shows an increasing trend in the future projection of EC-Earth3 and GFDL-ESM4. The difference in design rainfall in different regions is 26.2 mm and 21.7 mm, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to consider future rainfall changes in the design of rainwater source control facilities. The relationship curve between the volume capture ratio (VCR) of annual rainfall and design rainfall based on the rainfall data of the project site or region should be analyzed to determine the design rainfall of the rainwater source control facilities.

Keywords: design rainfall; rainwater source control; climate change; urbanization; sponge city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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