Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease

Javier Del-Águila-Mejía (), David García-García, Ayelén Rojas-Benedicto, Nicolás Rosillo, María Guerrero-Vadillo, Marina Peñuelas, Rebeca Ramis, Diana Gómez-Barroso and Juan de Mata Donado-Campos
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Javier Del-Águila-Mejía: Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública y Microbiología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. C. Arzobispo Morcillo 4, 28029 Madrid, Spain
David García-García: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Ayelén Rojas-Benedicto: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Nicolás Rosillo: Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Avenida de Córdoba s/n, 28041 Madrid, Spain
María Guerrero-Vadillo: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Marina Peñuelas: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Rebeca Ramis: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Diana Gómez-Barroso: Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
Juan de Mata Donado-Campos: Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública y Microbiología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. C. Arzobispo Morcillo 4, 28029 Madrid, Spain

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-15

Abstract: Human mobility drives the geographical diffusion of infectious diseases at different scales, but few studies focus on mobility itself. Using publicly available data from Spain, we define a Mobility Matrix that captures constant flows between provinces by using a distance-like measure of effective distance to build a network model with the 52 provinces and 135 relevant edges. Madrid, Valladolid and Araba/Álaba are the most relevant nodes in terms of degree and strength. The shortest routes (most likely path between two points) between all provinces are calculated. A total of 7 mobility communities were found with a modularity of 63%, and a relationship was established with a cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in 14 days (CI14) during the study period. In conclusion, mobility patterns in Spain are governed by a small number of high-flow connections that remain constant in time and seem unaffected by seasonality or restrictions. Most of the travels happen within communities that do not completely represent political borders, and a wave-like spreading pattern with occasional long-distance jumps (small-world properties) can be identified. This information can be incorporated into preparedness and response plans targeting locations that are at risk of contagion preventively, underscoring the importance of coordination between administrations when addressing health emergencies.

Keywords: mobility; transmission; networks; infectious diseases; epidemiology; spatial epidemiology; disease modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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