Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern

Md. Aminul Islam (), Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Ananda Tiwari, Md. Abdul Wahid Raju, Fateha Jannat, Sarawut Sangkham, Mahaad Issa Shammas, Prabhakar Sharma, Prosun Bhattacharya () and Manish Kumar
Additional contact information
Md. Aminul Islam: COVID-19 Diagnostic Lab, Department of Microbiology, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali 3814, Bangladesh
Mohammad Nayeem Hasan: Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
Ananda Tiwari: Department of Health Security, Expert Microbiology Research Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, 70701 Kuopio, Finland
Md. Abdul Wahid Raju: Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
Fateha Jannat: Department of Public Health, North East University, Sylhet 3100, Bangladesh
Sarawut Sangkham: Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Phayao, Muang District, Phayao 56000, Thailand
Mahaad Issa Shammas: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Dhofar University, P.O. Box 2509, Salalah PC 211, Oman
Prabhakar Sharma: School of Ecology and Environment Studies, Nalanda University, Rajgir 803116, India
Prosun Bhattacharya: COVID-19 Research, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10B, SE 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Manish Kumar: Sustainability Cluster, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun 248007, India

IJERPH, 2023, vol. 20, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia’s most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it’s dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman’s rho; r = −0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = −0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is −666.50 [95% CI: −1711.86 to 378.86] and −953.05 [−2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.

Keywords: Dengue virus (DENV); Dengue outbreak; Dengue fever; meteorological factors; Dengue cases and deaths; time series models; Bangladesh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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