Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US

Joseph Zuccarelli (), Laura Seaman and Kevin Rader
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Joseph Zuccarelli: The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Laura Seaman: The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Kevin Rader: Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the initial spread of COVID-19 within two states—Massachusetts and Michigan. Specifically, we use linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between four NPIs and individuals’ point-of-sale (POS) credit card transactions, as well as the relationship between subsequent changes in POS transactions and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Our analysis reveals a significant negative association between NPIs and daily POS transactions, particularly a dose–response relationship, in which stringent workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and gathering restrictions were all associated with decreased POS transactions. We also uncover a significant positive association between 12-day lagged changes in POS transactions compared to pre-pandemic baselines and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Overall, our study supports previous findings that early NPIs reduced human mobility and COVID-19 transmission in the US, providing policymakers with quantitative evidence concerning the effectiveness of NPIs.

Keywords: COVID-19; social distancing measures; mobility; mixed-effects modeling; longitudinal study; policy analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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