The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012–2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia

Nurlan Smagulov, Olzhas Zhamantayev (), Aiman Konkabayeva, Ainur Adilbekova, Gulmira Zhanalina, Nurzhamal Shintayeva and Dinara Aubakirova
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Nurlan Smagulov: Research Park of Biotechnology and Eco-Monitoring, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan
Olzhas Zhamantayev: School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan
Aiman Konkabayeva: Faculty of Biology and Geography, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan
Ainur Adilbekova: Department of Morphology and Physiology, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan
Gulmira Zhanalina: School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan
Nurzhamal Shintayeva: School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan
Dinara Aubakirova: School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 4, 1-10

Abstract: Background: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. Methods: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012–2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. Results: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (β = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (β = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (β = −27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (β = −2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R 2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (β = −0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (β = −0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (β = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R 2 = 0.796). Conclusions: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: demography; urban population; socioeconomic factors; climate; environment; public health; Kazakhstan; central Asia; middle-income country (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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