Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions

Mingdong Lyu (), Kuofu Liu and Randolph W. Hall
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Mingdong Lyu: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Mobility, Behavior, and Advanced Powertrains Department, Denver, CO 80401, USA
Kuofu Liu: Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
Randolph W. Hall: Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: Human travel plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious disease between regions. Travel of infected individuals from one region to another can transport a virus to places that were previously unaffected or may accelerate the spread of disease in places where the disease is not yet well established. We develop and apply models and metrics to analyze the role of inter-regional travel relative to the spread of disease, drawing from data on COVID-19 in the United States. To better understand how transportation affects disease transmission, we established a multi-regional time-varying compartmental disease model with spatial interaction. The compartmental model was integrated with statistical estimates of travel between regions. From the integrated model, we derived a transmission import index to assess the risk of COVID-19 transmission between states. Based on the index, we determined states with high risk for disease spreading to other states at the scale of months, and we analyzed how the index changed over time during 2020. Our model provides a tool for policymakers to evaluate the influence of travel between regions on disease transmission in support of strategies for epidemic control.

Keywords: interregional travel; disease transport; healthcare policy; compartmental model; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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