Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model

Matilde Fondriest (), Lorenzo Vaccari, Federico Aldrovandi, Laura De Lellis, Filippo Ferretti, Carmine Fiorentino, Erica Mari, Maria Grazia Mascolo, Laura Minelli, Vincenza Perlangeli, Giuseppe Bortone, Paolo Pandolfi, Annamaria Colacci and Andrea Ranzi
Additional contact information
Matilde Fondriest: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Lorenzo Vaccari: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Federico Aldrovandi: Alma Mater Institute on Healthy Planet, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, 40138 Bologna, Italy
Laura De Lellis: Hera Tech Srl, 40127 Bologna, Italy
Filippo Ferretti: Local Health Authority of Bologna, Department of Public Health, 40124 Bologna, Italy
Carmine Fiorentino: Local Health Authority of Bologna, Department of Public Health, 40124 Bologna, Italy
Erica Mari: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Maria Grazia Mascolo: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Laura Minelli: Water Directorate, Hera SpA, 40127 Bologna, Italy
Vincenza Perlangeli: Local Health Authority of Bologna, Department of Public Health, 40124 Bologna, Italy
Giuseppe Bortone: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Paolo Pandolfi: Local Health Authority of Bologna, Department of Public Health, 40124 Bologna, Italy
Annamaria Colacci: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy
Andrea Ranzi: Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, 40139 Bologna, Italy

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 6, 1-18

Abstract: The study investigated the application of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) as a tool for monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a city in northern Italy from October 2021 to May 2023. Based on a previously used deterministic model, this study proposed a variation to account for the population characteristics and virus biodegradation in the sewer network. The model calculated virus loads and corresponding COVID-19 cases over time in different areas of the city and was validated using healthcare data while considering viral mutations, vaccinations, and testing variability. The correlation between the predicted and reported cases was high across the three waves that occurred during the period considered, demonstrating the ability of the model to predict the relevant fluctuations in the number of cases. The population characteristics did not substantially influence the predicted and reported infection rates. Conversely, biodegradation significantly reduced the virus load reaching the wastewater treatment plant, resulting in a 30% reduction in the total virus load produced in the study area. This approach can be applied to compare the virus load values across cities with different population demographics and sewer network structures, improving the comparability of the WBE data for effective surveillance and intervention strategies.

Keywords: wastewater-based epidemiology; SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; wastewater; biodegradation; sewer network; spatiotemporal model; public health; early-warning system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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