Predicting Post-Disaster Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Trajectories: The Role of Pre-Disaster Traumatic Experiences

Sydney T. Johnson (), Susan M. Mason, Darin Erickson, Jaime C. Slaughter-Acey and Mary C. Waters
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Sydney T. Johnson: Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 1300 S. 2nd Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454, USA
Susan M. Mason: Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 1300 S. 2nd Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454, USA
Darin Erickson: Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 1300 S. 2nd Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454, USA
Jaime C. Slaughter-Acey: Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 1300 S. 2nd Street, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55454, USA
Mary C. Waters: Department of Sociology, Harvard University, 540 William James Hall, 33 Kirkland Street, Cambridge, MA 01238, USA

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: The mental health impact of disasters is substantial, with 30–40% of direct disaster victims developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is not yet clear why some people cope well with disaster-related trauma while others experience chronic dysfunction. Prior research on non-disaster trauma suggests that an individual’s history of traumatic experiences earlier in the life course, prior to the disaster, may be a key factor in explaining variability in psychological responses to disasters. This study evaluated the extent to which pre-disaster trauma predicts PTSD trajectories in a sample of Hurricane Katrina survivors followed for 12 years after the storm. Four PTSD trajectories were identified using latent class growth analysis: Resistant (49.0%), Recovery (29.3%), Delayed-Onset (8.0%), and Chronic–High (13.7%). After adjusting for covariates, pre-Katrina trauma had only a small, positive impact on the probability of long-term, chronic Katrina-specific PTSD, and little effect on the probability of the Resistant and Delayed-Onset trajectories. Higher pre-Katrina trauma exposure moderately decreased the probability of being in the Recovery trajectory, in which Katrina-specific PTSD symptoms are initially high before declining over time. When covariates were added to the model one at a time, the association between pre-Katrina trauma and Chronic–High PTSD was attenuated most by the addition of Katrina-related trauma. Our findings suggest that while pre-disaster trauma exposure does not have a strong direct effect on chronic Katrina-specific PTSD, pre-Katrina trauma may impact PTSD through other factors that affect Katrina-related PTSD, such as by increasing the severity of Katrina-related trauma. These findings have important implications for the development of disaster preparedness strategies to diminish the long-term burden of disaster-related PTSD.

Keywords: post-traumatic stress disorder; natural disasters; Hurricane Katrina (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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