Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches

Sockho Jeong, Yeonyeop Lim, Yeji Kang and Chaeyeon Yi ()
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Sockho Jeong: Chungnam Economy Promotion Agency, Support Center for Community Revitalization, Yesan-gun 32416, Republic of Korea
Yeonyeop Lim: Department of Geography, Kongju National University, Kongju-si 32588, Republic of Korea
Yeji Kang: Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong-si 30116, Republic of Korea
Chaeyeon Yi: Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Global Campus, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin-si 17035, Republic of Korea

IJERPH, 2024, vol. 21, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Heat vulnerability maps are vital for identifying at-risk areas and guiding interventions, yet their relationship with health outcomes is underexplored. This study investigates the uncertainty in heat vulnerability maps generated using health outcomes and various statistical models. We constructed vulnerability maps for 167 municipalities in Korea, focusing on the mild and severe health impacts of heat waves on morbidity and mortality. The outcomes included incidence rates of heat-related outpatient visits (morbidity) and attributable mortality rates (mortality) among individuals aged 65 years and older. To construct these maps, we utilized 11 socioeconomic variables related to population, climate, and economic factors. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were employed to assign these socioeconomic variables to heat vulnerability. We observed variations in the crucial socioeconomic variables affecting morbidity and mortality in the vulnerability maps. Notably, nonlinear models depicted the spatial patterns of health outcomes more accurately than linear models, considering the relationship between health outcomes and socioeconomic variables. Our findings emphasize the differences in the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability based on health outcomes and the choice of statistical models. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models to enhance the reliability of heat vulnerability maps and their relevance for policy-making.

Keywords: heat vulnerability map; uncertainty; heatwave impacts; mortality; morbidity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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