Spatial Modeling of the Potential Distribution of Dengue in the City of Manta, Ecuador

Karina Lalangui-Vivanco (), Emmanuelle Quentin (), Marco Sánchez-Murillo, Max Cotera-Mantilla, Luis Loor, Milton Espinoza, Johanna Mabel Sánchez-Rodríguez, Mauricio Espinel, Patricio Ponce and Varsovia Cevallos
Additional contact information
Karina Lalangui-Vivanco: Centro de Investigación en Salud Pública y Epidemiología Clínica (CISPEC), Facultad Ciencias de la Salud Eugenio Espejo, Universidad UTE, Quito 170527, Ecuador
Emmanuelle Quentin: Centro de Investigación en Salud Pública y Epidemiología Clínica (CISPEC), Facultad Ciencias de la Salud Eugenio Espejo, Universidad UTE, Quito 170527, Ecuador
Marco Sánchez-Murillo: Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta Pérez, Centro de Investigación EpiSIG, Quito 170136, Ecuador
Max Cotera-Mantilla: Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta Pérez, Centro de Investigación EpiSIG, Quito 170136, Ecuador
Luis Loor: Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí, Manta 130222, Ecuador
Milton Espinoza: Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí, Manta 130222, Ecuador
Johanna Mabel Sánchez-Rodríguez: Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí, Manta 130222, Ecuador
Mauricio Espinel: Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Carrera de Medicina, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí, Manta 130222, Ecuador
Patricio Ponce: Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta Pérez, Centro de Investigación CIREV, Quito 170136, Ecuador
Varsovia Cevallos: Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública, INSPI Dr. Leopoldo Izquieta Pérez, Centro de Investigación CIREV, Quito 170136, Ecuador

IJERPH, 2025, vol. 22, issue 10, 1-13

Abstract: In Ecuador, the transmission of dengue has steadily increased in recent decades, particularly in coastal cities like Manta, where the conditions are favorable for the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The objective of this study was to model the spatial distribution of dengue transmission risk in Manta, a coastal city in Ecuador with consistently high incidence rates. A total of 148 georeferenced dengue cases from 2018 to 2021 were collected, and environmental and socioeconomic variables were incorporated into a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Additionally, climate and social zoning were performed using a multi-criteria model in TerrSet. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent predictive ability (training AUC = 0.916; test AUC = 0.876) and identified population density, sewer system access, and distance to rivers as the primary predictors. Three high-risk clusters were identified in the southern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the city, while the coastal strip showed lower suitability due to low rainfall and vegetation. These findings reveal the strong spatial heterogeneity of dengue risk at the neighborhood level and provide operational information for targeted interventions. This approach can support more efficient surveillance, resource allocation, and community action in coastal urban areas affected by vector-borne diseases.

Keywords: arboviral infectious diseases; spatial modeling; dengue; Ecuador (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/22/10/1521/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/22/10/1521/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:22:y:2025:i:10:p:1521-:d:1764780

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().