Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Suicide Mortality in Brazil: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Karina Cardoso Meira (), Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Rafael Tavares Jomar, Cosme Marcelo Furtado Passos da Silva, Fabiana Serpa Braiti and Eder Samuel Oliveira Dantas
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Karina Cardoso Meira: Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Federal University of São Paulo, Diadema 09913-030, SP, Brazil
Raphael Mendonça Guimarães: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, National School of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, RJ, Brazil
Rafael Tavares Jomar: Assistance Coordination, National Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro 20230-130, RJ, Brazil
Cosme Marcelo Furtado Passos da Silva: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, National School of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, RJ, Brazil
Fabiana Serpa Braiti: University City Campus, Paulista University, São Paulo 05510-030, SP, Brazil
Eder Samuel Oliveira Dantas: Onofre Lopes University Hospital, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal 59012-300, RN, Brazil

IJERPH, 2025, vol. 22, issue 2, 1-24

Abstract: This study analyzed the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates among Brazilian residents, stratified by sex. It examined monthly suicide rates using interrupted time series analysis. Researchers compared the months before the pandemic (January 2017 to February 2020) with those after the first diagnosed case of COVID-19 in Brazil (March 2020 to December 2023). They applied an interrupted time series model (quasi-Poisson) to account for serial autocorrelation in the residuals and seasonality. During this period, authorities reported 102,081 suicides in Brazil. The age-standardized annual suicide rate among men was 3.71 times higher than the rate among women (12.33 suicides per 100,000 vs. 3.32 suicides per 100,000 women). The South and Midwest regions had the highest standardized annual average suicide rates. Suicide rates among men dropped abruptly at the pandemic’s onset (RR < 1, p < 0.05). However, Black men, women aged 15 to 19 years, and elderly individuals exhibited a significant increase (RR > 1, p < 0.05). Over time, suicide rates rose across most age groups, regions, and methods studied (RR > 1, p < 0.05). The pandemic’s impact differed significantly between men and women based on stratification variables. Nonetheless, a progressive upward trend emerged throughout the pandemic.

Keywords: suicide; health inequities; mental health; health crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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