Predictive Modeling for Pandemic Forecasting: A COVID-19 Study in New Zealand and Partner Countries

Oras Baker, Zahra Ziran (), Massimo Mecella, Kasthuri Subaramaniam and Sellappan Palaniappan
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Oras Baker: Faculty of Computing and Emerging Technology, Ravensbourne University London, London SE10 0EW, UK
Zahra Ziran: Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome, Italy
Massimo Mecella: Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Ariosto 25, 00185 Rome, Italy
Kasthuri Subaramaniam: Department of Decision Science, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Sellappan Palaniappan: Faculty of Computing, Help University, Bukit Damansara, Kuala Lumpur 50490, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2025, vol. 22, issue 4, 1-22

Abstract: This study proposes a data-driven approach to leveraging large-scale COVID-19 datasets to enhance the predictive modeling of disease spread in the early stages. We systematically evaluate three machine learning models—ARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM—using a comprehensive framework that incorporates time-series analysis, multivariate data integration, and a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique to assess model performance. The study focuses on key features such as daily confirmed cases, geographic variations, and temporal trends, while considering data constraints and adaptability across different scenarios. Our findings reveal that LSTM and ARIMA consistently outperform Prophet, with LSTM achieving the highest predictive accuracy in most cases, particularly when trained on 20-week datasets. ARIMA, however, demonstrates superior stability and reliability across varying time frames, making it a robust choice for short-term forecasting. A direct comparative analysis with existing approaches highlights the strengths and limitations of each model, emphasizing the importance of region-specific data characteristics and training periods. The proposed methodology not only identifies optimal predictive strategies but also establishes a foundation for automating predictive analysis, enabling timely and data-driven decision-making for disease control and prevention. This research is validated using data from New Zealand and its major trading partners—China, Australia, the United States, Japan, and Germany—demonstrating its applicability across diverse contexts. The results contribute to the development of adaptive forecasting frameworks that can empower public health authorities to respond proactively to emerging health threats.

Keywords: disease forecasting; machine learning; public health; COVID-19; time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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