Statistical and Machine Learning Modeling of Psychological, Sociodemographic, and Physical Activity Factors Associated with Weight Regain After Bariatric Surgery

Nélio Barreto Vieira, Paulo Felipe Ribeiro Bandeira, Danilo Ferreira de Sousa (), Gyllyandeson de Araújo Delmondes, Jucier Gonçalves Júnior and Victor Zaia
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Nélio Barreto Vieira: Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Centro Universitário FMABC, Santo André 09060-870, SP, Brazil
Paulo Felipe Ribeiro Bandeira: Study, Assessment and Research Group on Motor Assessment-GEAPAM, Department of Biological Sciences and Health, Universidade Regional do Cariri-URCA, Crato 63105-010, CE, Brazil
Danilo Ferreira de Sousa: Postdoctoral Program, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo 04021-001, SP, Brazil
Gyllyandeson de Araújo Delmondes: Department of Nursing Collegiate, Federal University of the São Francisco Valley-UNIVASF, Petrolina 56304-917, PE, Brazil
Jucier Gonçalves Júnior: Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Cariri (UFCA), Barbalha 63048-080, CE, Brazil
Victor Zaia: Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Centro Universitário FMABC, Santo André 09060-870, SP, Brazil

IJERPH, 2025, vol. 22, issue 6, 1-21

Abstract: Objective: This study aimed to investigate the associations between weight regain and psychological, sociodemographic, and physical activity factors in post-bariatric surgery patients using statistical modeling. Methods: A cross-sectional, single-center quantitative study was conducted in accordance with the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) and Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys (CHERRIES) guidelines. A total of 124 patients who underwent bariatric surgery at least 18 months prior were included. Psychological variables were assessed using validated instruments. Results: In the adjusted Poisson regression model, the most significant predictors of weight regain were binge eating severity (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.75–3.26; p < 0.001), stress levels (PR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.45–2.79; p = 0.002), negative affectivity (PR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.29–2.24; p = 0.004), and physical inactivity (PR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.21–2.41; p = 0.005). In contrast, anxiety (PR = 1.19; 95% CI: 0.87–1.63; p = 0.214) and psychoticism (PR = 1.12; 95% CI: 0.83–1.57; p = 0.278) showed no statistically significant associations. Conclusion: The results highlight the importance of binge eating severity, stress, negative affectivity, and physical inactivity as major contributors to weight regain after bariatric surgery.

Keywords: obesity; bariatric surgery; psychological factors; recurrent weight gain; binge eating; sedentary behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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