Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R 0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data

Hiroshi Nishiura
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Hiroshi Nishiura: PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan

IJERPH, 2010, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: The basic reproduction number, R 0 , a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R 0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R 0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R 0 using a spreadsheet.

Keywords: transmission; infectious diseases; basic reproduction number; epidemiology; statistical model; estimation techniques; HIV; AIDS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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