Bayesian Variable Selection in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Miguel A. Negrín, Francisco J. Vázquez-Polo, María Martel, Elías Moreno and Francisco J. Girón
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Miguel A. Negrín: Department of Quantitative Methods, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Tafira, E-35017 Las Palmas de G.C. Canary Islands, Spain
Francisco J. Vázquez-Polo: Department of Quantitative Methods, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Tafira, E-35017 Las Palmas de G.C. Canary Islands, Spain
María Martel: Department of Quantitative Methods, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Tafira, E-35017 Las Palmas de G.C. Canary Islands, Spain
Elías Moreno: Department of Statistics and Operation Research, University of Granada, Campus Fuentenueva, E-18071 Granada, Spain
Francisco J. Girón: Department of Statistics and Operation Research, University of Málaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Málaga, Spain

IJERPH, 2010, vol. 7, issue 4, 1-20

Abstract: Linear regression models are often used to represent the cost and effectiveness of medical treatment. The covariates used may include sociodemographic variables, such as age, gender or race; clinical variables, such as initial health status, years of treatment or the existence of concomitant illnesses; and a binary variable indicating the treatment received. However, most studies estimate only one model, which usually includes all the covariates. This procedure ignores the question of uncertainty in model selection. In this paper, we examine four alternative Bayesian variable selection methods that have been proposed. In this analysis, we estimate the inclusion probability of each covariate in the real model conditional on the data. Variable selection can be useful for estimating incremental effectiveness and incremental cost, through Bayesian model averaging, as well as for subgroup analysis.

Keywords: variable selection; Bayesian analysis; cost-effectiveness; BIC; Intrinsic Bayes Factor; Fractional Bayes Factor; subgroup analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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