Modeling Supply Chain Firms’ Stock Prices in the Fertilizer Industry through Innovative Cryptocurrency Market Big Data

Damianos P. Sakas, Nikolaos T. Giannakopoulos (), Markos Margaritis and Nikos Kanellos
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Damianos P. Sakas: Bictevac Laboratory—Business Information and Communication Technologies in Value Chains Laboratory, Department of Agribusiness and Supply Chain Management, School of Applied Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 118 55 Athens, Greece
Nikolaos T. Giannakopoulos: Bictevac Laboratory—Business Information and Communication Technologies in Value Chains Laboratory, Department of Agribusiness and Supply Chain Management, School of Applied Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 118 55 Athens, Greece
Markos Margaritis: Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Peloponnese, 263 34 Patras, Greece
Nikos Kanellos: Bictevac Laboratory—Business Information and Communication Technologies in Value Chains Laboratory, Department of Agribusiness and Supply Chain Management, School of Applied Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 118 55 Athens, Greece

IJFS, 2023, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Due to the volatility of the markets and the ongoing crises (COVID-19, the Ukrainian war, etc.), investors are keen to exploit any potential chances to make profits. For this reason, the idea of harvesting data from cryptocurrency market users takes an innovative step. Potential investors in supply chain firms in the fertilizer industry need to know whether the observation of data originating from the cryptocurrency market is capable of explaining their stock price variation. The authors identify the innovative utilization of cryptocurrency markets’ user analytical data to model and predict the stock price of supply chain firms in the fertilizer industry stock price. The main aim of this research is to evaluate the contribution of cryptocurrency market big data as a predicting factor for the stock price of fertilizer market firms. Such a finding improves the knowledge and decision-making of potential investors in the fertilizer market. Moreover, this study seeks to highlight the benefits of utilizing cryptocurrency market big data for other financial purposes, apart from stock price prediction. The analytical data was derived from cryptocurrency websites and applications and was then processed through statistical analysis (correlation and linear regressions), Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), and Hybrid Modeling (HM) modeling. The hybrid model’s simulation showed that analytical data from the cryptocurrency markets tend to explain and predict the stock price of supply chain firms in the fertilizer industry. Such data refer to Bitcoin’s website organic keywords and traffic costs, as well as paid traffic costs from cryptocurrency trade websites/apps. A rise in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trade websites’ organic and paid traffic costs tend to increase supply chain firms in the fertilizer industry’s stock prices, while Bitcoin’s website organic keywords variation decreases accordingly.

Keywords: cryptocurrency; blockchain; supply chain; fertilizer market; big data analysis; big data; decentralized finance; innovation; Decision Support Systems (DSS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 F3 F41 F42 G1 G2 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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