Climate Shocks and Residential Foreclosure Risk: Evidence from Property-Level Disaster and Transaction Data

Juan Sebastián Herrera, Jasmina M. Buresch, Zachary M. Hirsch and Jeremy R. Porter ()
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Juan Sebastián Herrera: Economics Department, First Street, 777 3rd Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Jasmina M. Buresch: Economics Department, First Street, 777 3rd Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Zachary M. Hirsch: Economics Department, First Street, 777 3rd Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Jeremy R. Porter: Economics Department, First Street, 777 3rd Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA

IJFS, 2025, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-33

Abstract: As climate disasters intensify, their financial shockwaves increasingly threaten residential stability and the resilience of the U.S. mortgage market. While prior research links natural disasters to payment delinquency, far less is known about foreclosure—the terminal outcome of housing distress. We construct a novel property-level panel covering 55 flood, wildfire, and hurricane events, integrating transactional, mortgage, and insurance data. A difference-in-differences framework compares foreclosure rates for damaged parcels with nearby undamaged controls within narrowly defined hazard perimeters. Results show that flooding substantially increases foreclosure risk: inundated properties experience a 0.29-percentage-point rise in foreclosure likelihood within three years, with effects concentrated outside federally mandated flood-insurance zones. In contrast, wildfire and hurricane wind damage are associated with lower foreclosure incidence, likely reflecting standard insurance coverage and rapid post-event price recovery. These findings suggest that physical destruction alone does not drive credit distress; rather, insurance liquidity and post-disaster equity dynamics mediate outcomes. Policy interventions that expand flood insurance coverage, stabilize insurance markets, and embed climate metrics in mortgage underwriting could reduce systemic exposure. Absent such measures, climate-driven foreclosures could account for nearly 30% of lender losses by 2035, posing growing risks to both household wealth and financial stability.

Keywords: climate risk; foreclosure; mortgage distress; loan-to-value (LTV); flood insurance; difference-in-differences (DiD) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 F3 F41 F42 G1 G2 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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