House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann
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Jan Christoph Rülke: Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany
Georg Stadtmann: Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany

IJFS, 2012, vol. 1, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 F3 F41 F42 G1 G2 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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