“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis

Benjamin Waggoner, Daniel Wines, Brian Soebbing, Chad S. Seifried and Jean Michael Martinez
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Benjamin Waggoner: School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Daniel Wines: School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Chad S. Seifried: School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Jean Michael Martinez: School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA

IJFS, 2014, vol. 2, issue 4, 1-12

Abstract: Several articles have looked at factors that affect the adjustments of point spreads, based on hot hands or streaks, for smaller durations of time. This study examines these effects for 34 regular seasons in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Estimating a Seemingly Unrelated Regression model using all 34 seasons, all streaks significantly impacted point spreads and difference in actual points. When estimating each season individually, differences emerged particularly examining winning and losing streaks of six games or more. The results indicate both the presence of momentum effects and the gambler’s fallacy.

Keywords: basketball; hot hand; streak; point spread; NBA (National Basketball Association) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 F3 F41 F42 G1 G2 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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