A Comprehensive Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rockfalls on Buildings Using 3D Model of Rockfall Runout

Mohammad Al-Shaar (), Pierre-Charles Gerard, Ghaleb Faour, Walid Al-Shaar () and Jocelyne Adjizian-Gérard
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Mohammad Al-Shaar: Geography Department, CREEMO (Centre de Recherche en Environnement-Espace Méditerranée Orientale), Campus des Sciences Humaines, Saint-Joseph University, Rue de Damas, Mar Mikhael, Beirut 1104 2020, Lebanon
Pierre-Charles Gerard: Geography Department, CREEMO (Centre de Recherche en Environnement-Espace Méditerranée Orientale), Campus des Sciences Humaines, Saint-Joseph University, Rue de Damas, Mar Mikhael, Beirut 1104 2020, Lebanon
Ghaleb Faour: National Center for Remote Sensing, National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS), Beirut 1107 2260, Lebanon
Walid Al-Shaar: National Center for Remote Sensing, National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS), Beirut 1107 2260, Lebanon
Jocelyne Adjizian-Gérard: Geography Department, CREEMO (Centre de Recherche en Environnement-Espace Méditerranée Orientale), Campus des Sciences Humaines, Saint-Joseph University, Rue de Damas, Mar Mikhael, Beirut 1104 2020, Lebanon

J, 2024, vol. 7, issue 2, 1-21

Abstract: Rockfalls are incidents of nature that take place when rocks or boulders break from a steep slope and fall to the ground. They can pose considerable threats to buildings placed in high-risk zones. Despite the fact that the impact of a rockfall on a building can cause structural and non-structural damage, few studies have been undertaken to investigate the danger associated with this event. Most of these studies indicated that the risk resulting from rockfall hazards is hard to forecast and assess. A comprehensive quantitative risk assessment approach for rockfalls on buildings is developed and described in this paper and applied for the Mtein village in Mount Lebanon. This method employs a 3D model to simulate the rockfall trajectories using a combination of digital elevation data, field surveys, and orthorectified aerial photographs. The spatial and temporal probability of rockfalls were evaluated using the analysis of historical data in two triggering-factor scenarios: earthquake and precipitation. The findings show that, during the period of 1472 years between the years 551 (the first observed large earthquake in Lebanon) and the current year of the study (2023), the temporal probability will potentially be equal to 0.002 and 0.105 in the cases of earthquake- and rainfall-triggered rockfalls, respectively, while the maximal damage values are expected to be 232 USD and 10,511 USD per year, respectively. The end result is a final map presenting the risk values assigned to each building that could be damaged by rockfalls.

Keywords: rockfall; 3D model; earthquake; precipitation; risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I1 I10 I12 I13 I14 I18 I19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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