Safety Evaluation of Evacuation Routes in Central Tokyo Assuming a Large-Scale Evacuation in Case of Earthquake Disasters
Kayoko Yamamoto () and
Ximing Li ()
Additional contact information
Kayoko Yamamoto: Graduate School of Informatics and Engineering, University of Electro-Communications, Chofu 182-8585, Japan
Ximing Li: Graduate School of Information Systems, University of Electro-Communications, Chofu 182-8585, Japan
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2017, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-21
The present study aims to conduct a quantitative evaluation of evacuation route safety using the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for risk management in central Tokyo. Firstly, the similarity in safety was focused on while taking into consideration road blockage probability. Then, by classifying roads by means of the hierarchical cluster analysis, the congestion rates of evacuation routes using ACO simulations were estimated. Based on these results, the multiple evacuation routes extracted were visualized on digital maps by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and their safety was evaluated. Furthermore, the selection of safe evacuation routes between evacuation sites for cases when the possibility of large-scale evacuation after an earthquake disaster is high is made possible. As the evaluation method is based on public information, by obtaining the same geographic information as the present study, it is effective in other areas, regardless of whether the information is from the past or future. Therefore, in addition to spatial reproducibility, the evaluation method also has high temporal reproducibility. Because safety evaluations are conducted on evacuation routes based on quantified data, the selected highly safe evacuation routes have been quantitatively evaluated, and thus serve as an effective indicator when selecting evacuation routes.
Keywords: large-scale evacuation; evacuation route; safety evaluation; earthquake disaster; Ant Colony Optimization (ACO); Geographic Information Systems (GIS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:3:p:14-:d:102828
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Risk and Financial Management is currently edited by Prof. Dr. Michael McAleer
More articles in Journal of Risk and Financial Management from MDPI, Open Access Journal
Bibliographic data for series maintained by XML Conversion Team ().