COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion

Julien Chevallier

JRFM, 2020, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-25

Abstract: The original contribution of this paper is to empirically document the contagion of the Covid-19 on financial markets. We merge databases from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center, Oxford-Man Institute Realized Library, NYU Volatility Lab, and St-Louis Federal Reserve Board. We deploy three types of models throughout our experiments: (i) the Susceptible-Infective-Removed (SIR) that predicts the infections’ peak on 2020-03-27; (ii) volatility (GARCH), correlation (DCC), and risk-management (Value-at-Risk (VaR)) models that relate how bears painted Wall Street red; and, (iii) data-science trees algorithms with forward prunning, mosaic plots, and Pythagorean forests that crunch the data on confirmed, deaths, and recovered Covid-19 cases and then tie them to high-frequency data for 31 stock markets.

Keywords: Covid-19; financial contagion; Johns Hopkins repository; Susceptible-Infective-Removed model; tree algorithm; data science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/309/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/309/ (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: Covid-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:309-:d:455854

Access Statistics for this article

JRFM is currently edited by Ms. Chelthy Cheng

More articles in JRFM from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().