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Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

Xiaoguang Yue (), Xue-Feng Shao (), Rita Yi Man Li (), M. James C. Crabbe (), Lili Mi (), Siyan Hu (), Julien S Baker (), Liting Liu () and Kechen Dong ()
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Xue-Feng Shao: Discipline of International Business, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
Rita Yi Man Li: Department of Economics and Finance, HKSYU Real Estate and Economics Research Lab, Sustainable Real Estate Research Center, Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong 999077, China
M. James C. Crabbe: Wolfson College, Oxford University, Oxford OX2 6UD, UK
Lili Mi: Department of Business Strategy and Innovation, Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia
Siyan Hu: International Engineering and Technology Institute, Hong Kong 999077, China
Julien S Baker: Centre for Health and Exercise Science Research, Department of Sport, Physical Education and Health, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong 999077, China
Liting Liu: Department of Soil Science, University of Saskatchewan, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A8, Canada
Kechen Dong: Adelaide Business School, the University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia

JRFM, 2020, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.

Keywords: COVID-19; China’s economy; severe acute respiratory syndrome; GDP; autoregressive moving average model; autoregressive integrated moving average model; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average with exogenous regressors; Holt Winter’s exponential smoothing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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