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The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries

Thi Bich Ngoc Tran () and Hoang Cam Huong Pham ()
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Thi Bich Ngoc Tran: Faculty of Accounting—Finance, University of Economics—Hue University, Hue City 49129, Vietnam
Hoang Cam Huong Pham: Faculty of Accounting—Finance, University of Economics—Hue University, Hue City 49129, Vietnam

Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2020, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-26

Abstract: This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy; shadow short rate; spillover effect; Asian developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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