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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators

Deimante Teresiene (), Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene (), Yiyi Liao (), Rasa Kanapickiene (), Ruihui Pu (), Siyan Hu () and Xiaoguang Yue ()
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Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene: Finance Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Yiyi Liao: International Research Institute for Economics and Management, Wan Chai, Hong Kong, China
Rasa Kanapickiene: Finance Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Ruihui Pu: Faculty of Economics, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok 10110, Thailand
Siyan Hu: International Engineering and Technology Institute, Wan Chai, Hong Kong, China

JRFM, 2021, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-23

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we aim to identify consumer and business confidence indicators’ reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eurozone, the United States, and China. For this purpose, we used the method of correlation–regression analysis. We chose the consumer-confidence index, manufacturing purchasing manager’s index, and services purchasing manager’s index as dependent variables; and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 infections as independent variables. The results showed a relatively rapid and robust effect of COVID-19 in the short period, but longer-term results depended on the region and were not so unambiguous: in the case of the Eurozone, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the consumer-confidence index (CCI) or, in the cases of the United States and China, affected this index negatively; the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the services sector was significantly negatively affected by the mortality risk of COVID-19 infection; and the impact on the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the manufacturing industry appeared to be mixed.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; economic sentiment; consumer confidence; leading indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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