Hedging Long-Dated Oil Futures and Options Using Short-Dated Securities—Revisiting Metallgesellschaft

James S. Doran and Ehud I. Ronn
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James S. Doran: School of Banking and Finance, UNSW Business School, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Ehud I. Ronn: Department of Finance, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, 2100 Speedway Stop B6600, Austin, TX 78712-1276, USA

JRFM, 2021, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-10

Abstract: Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to extrapolating futures prices and implied volatilities. When we expand the analysis to implementing hedge portfolios for long-dated futures or option contracts over the time period 2007–2017, we utilize the useful benchmark of hedge ratios arising from Schwartz and Smith. With respect to the empirical consequences of hedging long-dated futures and options with their short-dated counterparts, we find that the long-term tracking errors are, on average, quite close to zero, but there is increasing risk entailed in attempting to do so, as the hedge-tracking errors for both futures and option contracts increase with time-to-maturity.

Keywords: hedging; long-dated; oil futures; option contracts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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