Insight into Predicted Shocks in Tourism: Review of an Ex-Ante Forecasting

Sergej Gricar (), Stefan Bojnec and Tea Baldigara
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Sergej Gricar: Faculty of Business and Management Science, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, SI-8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
Stefan Bojnec: Faculty of Management, University of Primorska, Izolska Vrata 2, SI-6101 Koper-Capodistria, Slovenia
Tea Baldigara: Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Naselje Ika, Primorska 46, HR-51410 Opatija, Croatia

JRFM, 2022, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into the modelling and forecasting of unknown events or shocks that can affect international tourist arrivals. Time-dependence is vital for summarising scattered findings. The usefulness of econometric forecasting has been recently confirmed by the pandemic and other events that have affected the world economy and, consequently, the tourism sector. In the study, a single Slovenian dataset is input for the analysis of tourist arrivals. Vector autoregressive modelling is used in the modelling process. The data vector from the premium research is extended up to 2022. The latter is an ex-post empirical study to show the validity of the ex-ante predictions. This paper analyses the synthesis of ex-ante predictions which fill the gap in the ex-ante forecasting literature. The study of previous events is relevant for research, policy and practice, with various implications.

Keywords: calamitous events; econometrics; forecasting; pandemic; shocks; time-series; tourism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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