Effect of COVID-19 on International Trade among the Visegrad Countries

Erginbay Ugurlu () and Irena Jindřichovská
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Irena Jindřichovská: Department of Financial Management, Metropolitan University Prague, Dubečská 900/10, Strašnice, 100 31 Praha, Czech Republic

JRFM, 2022, vol. 15, issue 2, 1-20

Abstract: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental to all countries, despite the continuous efforts of governments on all continents to attempt to mitigate its damaging effects. All economic and social indicators have worsened. This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on international trade among the Visegrad Four (V4) countries. We employ data from Eurostat and FRED to explore this influence, using the monthly import and export data for the 2010 M1–2021 M4period. We estimate the trade model for each member country of the V4, exploring their trade relations with other V4 members. We employ a shift dummy and impulse dummy to show the effect of country lockdowns initiating possible structural change. After exploration, we found that the COVID-19 impact was evident in all countries, but not with the same strength. Looking outside the V4 group, we can also see that there are strong trade relations with Germany, which is the strongest European economy. For further exploration, we suggest investigating these outside links to complete the picture.

Keywords: COVID-19; Visegrad Four; international trade; ARDL model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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