The Effects of National Fundamental Factors on Regional House Prices: A Factor-Augmented VAR Analysis

Xiang Gao, Wen Kong and Zhijun Hu
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Xiang Gao: School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No.168, East Shuanggang Road, Nanchang 330013, China
Wen Kong: School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No.168, East Shuanggang Road, Nanchang 330013, China
Zhijun Hu: School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No.168, East Shuanggang Road, Nanchang 330013, China

JRFM, 2022, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-19

Abstract: Using panel data from 30 regions in China during the period 1999:01–2020:12, this paper evaluates the effects of national fundamentals affecting the movement of regional house prices by estimating a factor-augmented VAR model. We construct and examine a hypothesis that national fundamentals affecting regional house prices, such as monetary policy (short-term interest rate and M2), real output, and inflation rate, may affect regional house prices through their impacts on common factors. The empirical results show that monetary shocks (both interest rate and M2) can significantly affect regional house prices, but the effects are pretty different across regions. However, the effects of the real output and inflation rate are less important. Therefore, this study offers valuable information for regulators to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy to stabilize house markets from a regional perspective.

Keywords: national fundamental factors; regional house price; monetary policy; factor-augmented VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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