COVID-19 Mortality and Economic Losses: The Role of Policies and Structural Conditions

Weichen Wang (), Andrea Gurgone, Humberto Martínez, Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, Ettore Gallo, Ádam Kerényi, Enrico Maria Turco, Carla Coburger and Pêdra D. S. Andrade
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Weichen Wang: Department of Economics, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
Andrea Gurgone: Data Science Practice, Whiteshield, Dubai 3503, United Arab Emirates
Humberto Martínez: Economics Department, Rutgers University, New York, NY 08854, USA
Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes: Economics Department, Roma Tre University, 00154 Rome, Italy
Ádam Kerényi: Eötvös Loránd Research Network, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Institute of World Economics, 1097 Budapest, Hungary
Enrico Maria Turco: The Complexity Lab in Economics, Catholic University of Milan, 20123 Milano, Italy
Carla Coburger: AfricaMultiple Cluster of Excellence, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
Pêdra D. S. Andrade: Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-220, Brazil

JRFM, 2022, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-28

Abstract: The response of governments to the COVID-19 outbreak was foremost oriented to two objectives: saving lives and limiting economic losses. However, the effectiveness and success factors of interventions were unknown ex-ante. This study aims to shed light on the drivers of countries’ performances during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure performances by excess mortality and GDP growth adjusted for additional fiscal stimulus. We conduct an empirical analysis in two stages: first, using hierarchical clustering, we partition countries based on their similarity in health and economic outcomes. Second, we identify the key drivers of outcomes in each country cluster by regression analysis, which include linear, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and logit models. We argue that differences in countries’ performances can be traced back both to policy responses to COVID-19 and structural conditions, the latter being immutable over the pandemic. Three relevant structural conditions emerge from the results: trade reliance on services, corruption, and the size of the vulnerable population (elderly, low-income, smoking, or cardiovascular-failing). Policies such as large-scale open public testing and additional fiscal stimulus in non-health could help reduce excess mortality, which might lead to lower economic losses.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; resilience; covid economics; health policy; system recovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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