Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Food Security in Nigeria
Lydia N. Kotur (),
Goodness C. Aye () and
Josephine B. Ayoola
Additional contact information
Lydia N. Kotur: Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria
Goodness C. Aye: Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria
Josephine B. Ayoola: Department of Agricultural Economics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi 970001, Nigeria
JRFM, 2024, vol. 17, issue 3, 1-16
Abstract:
This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on food security in Nigeria, utilizing annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The study used descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and its associated Bounds tests to analyze the data. The analysis reveals that adult population, environmental degradation, exchange rate uncertainty (EXRU), financial deepening, food security (FS), government expenditure in agriculture uncertainty (GEAU), inflation, and interest rate uncertainty (INRU) exhibit positive mean values over the period, with varying degrees of volatility. Cointegration tests indicate a long-term relationship between EPU variables (GEAU, INRU, and EXRU) and food security. The study finds that cumulative positive and negative EPU variables have significant effects on food security in the short run. Specifically, negative GEAU, positive INRU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects in the short run. In the long run, negative GEAU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects on food security. Additionally, the research highlights asymmetric effects, showing that the influence of GEAU and EXRU on food security differs in the short- and long-run. The study underscores the importance of increased government expenditure on agriculture, control of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty, and the reduction in economic policy uncertainty to mitigate risks in the agricultural sector and enhance food security. Recommendations include strategies to stabilize exchange rates to safeguard food supply and overall food security.
Keywords: economic; policy; uncertainty; policy uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; food security; asymmetric; effect and asymmetric effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/3/114/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/3/114/ (text/html)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:114-:d:1355020
Access Statistics for this article
JRFM is currently edited by Ms. Chelthy Cheng
More articles in JRFM from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().