Productivity and Keynes’s 15-Hour Work Week Prediction for 2030: An Alternative, Macroeconomic Analysis for the United States

Edoardo Beretta, Aurelio F. Bariviera, Marco Desogus, Costanza Naguib and Sergio Rossi
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Aurelio F. Bariviera: Department Gestió d’Empreses, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Universitat 1, 43204 Reus, Spain
Costanza Naguib: Department of Economics, Universität Bern, Hochschulstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Sergio Rossi: Department of Economics, University of Fribourg, Bd de Pérolles 90, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland

JRFM, 2024, vol. 17, issue 7, 1-30

Abstract: This paper analyses Keynes’s 1930 prediction that technical advances would cut people’s working week to 15 h by 2030 and investigates why actual working hours are significantly higher in the United States. Elaborating on Keynes’s forecast to provide a general productivity formula while keeping its simplicity, we ran tests on macro-data from 1929 to 2019 and on estimates for 2030, demonstrating that productivity is surprisingly still insufficient to allow for a reduction in working hours across the US economy. This finding represents a substantial contribution to the literature, which has mostly explained long working hours by means of new consumer needs. Even by using microdata, we show that consumption does not explain the stickiness of working hours to the bottom. Hence, this paper combines a macroeconomic, logical-analytical approach based on historical time series with rigorously constructed time series at the microeconomic level. Finally, we also provide policies to narrow the productivity differential to Keynes’s prediction for 2030 while fostering work-life balance and sustainable growth. To understand long working hours in the US despite technical advances—this being one of our main findings—productivity remains crucial.

Keywords: John Maynard Keynes; productivity; working hours (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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