A Multi-Stage Financial Distress Early Warning System: Analyzing Corporate Insolvency with Random Forest

Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuo Higashide, Takuji Kinkyo and Shigeyuki Hamori ()
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Katsuyuki Tanaka: Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
Takuo Higashide: au Asset Management Corporation, Tokyo 101-0065, Japan
Takuji Kinkyo: Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
Shigeyuki Hamori: Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan

JRFM, 2025, vol. 18, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: As corporate sector stability is crucial for economic resilience and growth, machine learning has become a widely used tool for constructing early warning systems (EWS) to detect financial vulnerabilities more accurately. While most existing EWS research focuses on bankruptcy prediction models, bankruptcy signals often emerge too late and provide limited early-stage insights. This study employs a random forest approach to systematically examine whether a company’s insolvency status can serve as an effective multi-stage financial distress EWS. Additionally, we analyze how the financial characteristics of insolvent companies differ from those of active and bankrupt firms. Our empirical findings indicate that highly accurate insolvency models can be developed to detect status transitions from active to insolvent and from insolvent to bankrupt. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the financial determinants of these transitions differ significantly. The shift from active to insolvent is primarily driven by structural and operational ratios, whereas the transition from insolvent to bankrupt is largely influenced by further financial distress in operational and profitability ratios.

Keywords: random forest; data science; company insolvency and bankruptcy; financial distress; financial vulnerability; economic activity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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