Mapping Systemic Tail Risk in Crypto Markets: DeFi, Stablecoins, and Infrastructure Tokens

Nader Naifar ()
Additional contact information
Nader Naifar: Department of Finance, College of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11564, Saudi Arabia

JRFM, 2025, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-23

Abstract: This paper investigates systemic tail dependence within the crypto-asset ecosystem by examining interconnectedness across eight major tokens spanning Layer 1 cryptocurrencies, DeFi tokens, stablecoins, and infrastructure/governance assets. We employ a novel partial correlation-based network framework and quantile-specific connectedness measures to examine how co-movement patterns evolve under normal and extreme market conditions from September 2021 to March 2025. Unlike conventional correlation or variance decomposition approaches, our methodology isolates direct, tail-specific transmission channels while filtering out standard shocks. The results indicate strong asymmetries in dependence structures. Systemic risk intensifies during adverse tail events, particularly around episodes such as the Terra/Luna crash, the USDC depeg, and Bitcoin’s 2024 halving cycle. Our analysis shows that ETH, LINK, and UNI are key assets in spreading losses when the market falls. In contrast, the stablecoin DAI tends to absorb some of the stress, helping reduce risk during downturns. These results indicate critical contagion pathways and suggest that regulation targeting protocol-level transparency, liquidity provisioning, and interoperability standards may reduce amplification mechanisms without eliminating interdependence. Our findings contribute to the emerging literature on crypto-systemic risk and offer actionable insights for regulators, DeFi protocol architects, and institutional investors. In particular, we advocate for the incorporation of tail-sensitive network diagnostics into real-time monitoring frameworks to better manage asymmetric spillover risks in decentralized financial systems.

Keywords: systemic risk; tail dependence; crypto-asset network; partial correlation; DeFi tokens; stablecoins (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/6/329/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/6/329/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:6:p:329-:d:1680249

Access Statistics for this article

JRFM is currently edited by Ms. Chelthy Cheng

More articles in JRFM from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().