Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Assess and Minimize Credit Risks

Garnik Arakelyan and Armen Ghazaryan ()
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Garnik Arakelyan: Faculty of Computer Science and Statistics, Armenian State University of Economics (ASUE), Paruyr Sevaki Str. 77, Yerevan 0069, Armenia
Armen Ghazaryan: Faculty of Computer Science and Statistics, Armenian State University of Economics (ASUE), Paruyr Sevaki Str. 77, Yerevan 0069, Armenia

JRFM, 2025, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-16

Abstract: The banking system, as the most important sector of the economy of every country, often encounters a number of risks. Financial institutions of that system operate in an unstable environment, and without having complete information about that environment, they may suffer significant losses. The main source of such losses is considered to be credit risks, and for the management of these, various mathematical models are being developed which will allow banks to make decisions on granting a loan. Lately, for this purpose, machine learning (ML) classification algorithms have often been used for credit risk modeling. In this research work, using the ideas of well-known ML algorithms, a new algorithm for solving the binary classification problem was developed. By means of the algorithm created, based on real data, a classification model has been developed. Qualitative indicators of that model, such as ROC AUC, PR AUC, precision, recall, and F1 score, were evaluated. By modifying the resulting probabilities into a range of 300–850 score points, a scoring model has been developed, the usage of which can mitigate credit risk and protect financial organizations from major losses.

Keywords: credit risk modeling; credit risk; machine learning; prediction; classification algorithm; scoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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