Combining Remote Sensing and Species Distribution Modelling to Assess Pinus hartwegii Response to Climate Change and Land Use from Izta-Popo National Park, Mexico

Ignacio García-Amorena, Elena Moreno-Amat, María Encina Aulló-Maestro, María Cruz Mateo-Sánchez, Silvia Merino- De-Miguel, Jaime Ribalaygua and Robert Marchant
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Ignacio García-Amorena: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Elena Moreno-Amat: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
María Encina Aulló-Maestro: Earth Observation Applications, Ctra. de Loeches, 9 Edificio TT1, 28850 Madrid, Spain
María Cruz Mateo-Sánchez: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Silvia Merino- De-Miguel: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Jaime Ribalaygua: Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, C/Gran Vía 22 (Duplicado), 7º, 28013 Madrid, Spain
Robert Marchant: York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 10, 1-20

Abstract: A detailed analysis of distribution shifts in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. is provided across time for Izta-Popo National Park (México). Combining satellite images, species distribution models, and connectivity analysis we disentangled the effect of climate change and anthropogenic land use on the habitat availability. Twenty-four Maxent habitat suitability models with varying complexity were combined with insights on vegetation and land cover change derived from two Landsat satellite images at 30-m resolution from 1993 and 2013. To evaluate effects of climate change on Izta-Popo’s P. hartwegii forest, projections for future climatic conditions (averaged for 2050 and 2070) were derived using two General Circulation Models under three Representative CO 2 concentration pathways (RCPs). Calculated fragmentation and connectivity indexes (Equivalent Connected Area and Probability of Connectivity metrics) showed significant habitat loss and habitat fragmentation that weakens P. hartwegii dispersion flux and the strength of connections. Projections of future climate conditions showed a reduction of P. hartwegii habitat suitability as populations would have to migrate to higher altitudes. However, the impact of anthropogenic land use change documented over the 20 years masks the predicted impact of climate change in Izta-Popo National Park.

Keywords: model complexity; model validation; Landsat; satellite data; species distribution models; connectivity; fragmentation; Maxent; land-use change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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