Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Kuye River Basin Based on Three Budyko Methods

Jiahao Zheng, Yi He, Xiaohui Jiang, Tong Nie and Yuxin Lei
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Jiahao Zheng: Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Yi He: Environmental Engineering, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Xiaohui Jiang: Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Tong Nie: Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Yuxin Lei: Environmental Engineering, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 10, 1-18

Abstract: The Loess Plateau is the main soil erosion area within the Yellow River Basin. Quantifying the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change can provide support for water resources management in the Yellow River Basin. Kuye River Basin is located in the Loess Plateau. As a first-class tributary of the Yellow River, it was selected as the study area. Runoff from the Kuye River Basin has decreased significantly since the 1990s owing to climate change and anthropogenic coal mining. The main objective of this study was to quantify the contribution and sensitivity of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff changes using three popular Budyko and elasticity coefficient methods, as well as to compare the similarities and differences among the three methods. The results show that: (1) Through four mutation point test methods, the change point of runoff in the study period of Kuye River Basin is 1997. (2) The elasticity coefficients calculated by the three Budyko methods showed that during the study period, the runoff was more sensitive to changes in precipitation, followed by the catchment surface characteristic parameters and the potential evapotranspiration. (3) All three Budyko methods can yield reasonable contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff changes. The three methods together indicate that the influence of the catchment surface characteristic parameters is the most important factor for the runoff variation in the Kuye River.

Keywords: climate change; attribution analysis; Budyko hypothesis; human activities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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